Monday, May 30, 2005

Fun with similarity scores was very quick to get the 2005 regular season stats up, which means that their similarity scores are up too. Go here for the full definition, they basically compare a players' season with anothers at the same age using a variety of physical and statistical factors. So the players' best comp means that at that age they had the most similar season, NOT that they've had the most similar career up to that season.

With a young team like the Bulls, these can serve as an interesting look into the potential future of their core. Obviously a career path can take multiple directions at such a young age, so these aren't meant to inspire or depress (based on the comps), just found them interesting...



Best Comp

Similarity Score  
Andres Nocioni 25 Chris Carr 852  
Kirk Hinrich 24 Winston Garland 884 *Also most simlar at age 23
Chris Duhon 22 Lee Mayberry 896  
Eddy Curry 22 Maurice Taylor 878 *Also most simlar at age 21
Tyson Chandler 22 Shawn Bradley 836  
Ben Gordon 21 Ray Allen 812  
Luol Deng 19 Josh Smith 823  

If you look at the full explanation, there are obviously some limitations. First off there is only one comparison listed, there may be several other good/poor players that have had nearly as similar seasons to the best cops. As far as the method, there is little consideration to defense outside of fouls and blocks, and every factor of the player is weighted equally. I'm not going to pretend *I* know how to do it better, I just am trying to look for any reason to avoid visions of a Bradley/Taylor frontcourt. However, that Ben Gordon comp (while with a low similarity score) looks awfully good, so I guess you take the good with the bad.

Either way, poke around, you can line up the seasons if you like and see just how similar they were, and do a whole bunch of other neat stuff. That's right I said "neat".

When John Hollinger releases his new Basketball Forecast, I'll let you know what his findings (he computes these scores under a different forumla) were.