"Lowered Expectations", and other awful MadTV sketches...

 

"The team has played 11 of its last 15 at home. Of their 11 victories during that stretch, just three have come against teams with a winning record."

So wrote Chad Ford on Monday. Ford (and I don't know why) actually has shown a lot of pro-Bulls slant over the years, so I will cut him slack. I will concede the point about the dearth of road games. But winning at home is much better than losing at home. And its common wisdom in the NBA that a team has to learn to win on their home court first before branching out and winning road games, so maybe this stretch was a precursor to future road success. (OK, I'm grasping at straws...moving on...)

That all said, the fact that only 3 wins have come against teams with winning records is misleading. Look at the East, there are exactly 6 teams in the whole conference who have winning records, a futile mark punctuated by the fact that nobody in the Atlantic division has won more games than lost. That got My Man Sam(tm)'s mind workin:

More likely, the bigger concern [than the Atlantic divison winner] for the NBA will be the team in sixth. That team would face the Atlantic winner in the first round, but the team with the better record would have home-court advantage. That means if the Bulls could finish sixth, they could get the home-court edge and probably earn a trip to the conference semifinals.

Well I'll just worry about the 8th seed first.  The Bulls would need two among Miami/Detroit/Washington/Indiana/Orlando/Cleveland to falter, and I just don't see that happening (although Orlando is a good candidate to do so). Just get in for now. As I said before this homestand:

here is only one question: There are 3 spots left, and 8 teams going for it. Are the Bulls in the top 3 of those 8 (the fact that one of these playoff spots have to go the Atlantic division winner could complicate things)? If they perform well on this homestand against their standings competition (along with similarly-talented teams from the west), you'd have to give them a shot.

Well not only did they 'perform well', they won every damned game.

And as I also noted back then, the rest of January isn't too tough even if they won't be at home, with only a game (at Detroit - 1/22) that would have you heavily favor the opponent. February does get a little tougher, but listen: as bad as the Bulls may play against some of the elite, they don't have to be that good. Just better than the dredges of the Eastern Conference. And as this homestand proved, that may not prove to be too hard of a task.

 

"Specialized Excellence"

That was a term I used to describe the Bulls before their home-and-home series against the Knicks this past weekend. And I think the statement that enveloped that phrase turned out to be pretty relevant:

"what [the Bulls] do is stay close, and by crunch time, Gordon and Chandler will use their specialized excellence to try and take over both ends of the court."

Both wins this weekend, an 86-84 victory win in Chicago and today's 88-86 victory in New York, showed off Gordon and Chandler's (and some other Bulls') specialized talents.

I have to start with the play at the end of Saturday's game, which was a joy to watch, even as part of a highlight package (my only means, unfortunately). A block by Nocioni out of nowhere on the Knicks' Trevor Ariza, followed by an unbelievable save by Tyson Chandler (what happened to 'don't save it under your own basket?') to Hinrich, who then gave it to Noc who made a touch (and bad) pass to Eddy Curry for a layup. Hard to name one star of that play, but my favorite portion was not just Eddy catching the low pass, and his deft move around Kurt Thomas to avoid contact, but the fact that when Nocioni blocked that ball Eddy started sprinting down the court. Amazing what a little winning will do.

Its natural that the Knicks came out firing Monday after seeing a  raucous celebration at their expense. But even after building up a double-digit lead at one point, the Bulls managed to stay close. (with 20 straight opponents kept under 100 points, its hard to get blown out.) After a pretty poor first half, the Bulls backcourt turned it up with Hinrich in the 3rd quarter and Ben Gordon to close it out, scoring 13 points in the 4th including the last 2 with 0.1 seconds left.

(These past two games have provided highlight after highlight to put on this season's tape, but my favorite was seeing Tyson Chandler give Scott Skiles a bearhug after the Knicks inbounded the ball to end that game. Skiles, who at every turn tries to downplay his team's recent success (and rightfully so), got himself caught in the moment of jubilation, smiling and hugging Tyson back before moving on to congratulate Ben Gordon. )

For a more in-depth analysis of that game, Knickerblogger offers profuse praise for the Bulls:

Chicago relied on their two big men, Chandler and Curry, whose four blocked shots don't adequately reflect the intimidation and presence they applied in the paint. The Knicks had their problems scoring inside. Marbury had a drive blocked and recovered by one of the Bulls. Nazr Mohammed was embarrassed when his clear-path-to-the-rim-I'm-going-to-jam-it-with-one-hand was forcefully rejected.
 

It's quite a luxury for a team whose majority of praise goes to a skilled backcourt to also rely on two young, very large, and extremely athletic frontcourt players to dominate an opposing team. That play Knickerblogger was talking about was one I was looking for when I watched the tape today (not all of us get MLK day off), and it was BOTH Curry and Chandler who blocked that shot. An opposing player who drives the lane against the Bulls now has 14 feet of nasty coming at them, and that's the start of a great defense.

Which brings me back to specialized excellence. Chandler, for instance, still has little offensive game, but his defense can completely alter an opponents gameplan (question: why did Lenny Wilkens attack him at the end of Saturday's game? I guess he can tell whoever's working at the unemployment office soon enough). Gordon still turns the ball over too much and gives away points to his man, but can light up a scoreboard and be counted on in the final possession. Curry still has trouble grabbing rebounds that don't fall in his lap, but makes moves that only the young, explosive Shaq could do at that size. Nocioni is still having trouble adjusting to the NBA, but he can rebound with the best of them at his position (11 on Monday, including a huge offensive board to set up Gordon's shot).

Short of Hinrich and Deng (who led the team with 19 Monday), the Bulls really don't have many complete players. Obviously still young, I'm sure most of them will get it. But on this team they don't have to on most nights, their different skills mold together in what is now the hottest team in the NBA.

(whew! after all that fuzzy-happy-writing, I'll back tomorrow to poor some cold water on our hopes and dreams)

Update: Unknown Column has more.

(Guest post) - How to Beat the Knicks

[In honor of the Knicks-Bulls matchup this weekend, today's blog comes from KnickerBlogger, a born & bred New Yorker. Matt's post today is published on KnickerBlogger's site.]

Matt kindly asked me to guest blog for the upcoming back-to-back games between our two respective teams. I've actually been to Chicago. Some of my clearest memories are driving on Michigan Avenue, and passing all the major stadiums: Comiskey Park, Soldier Field, the United Center, and of course Wrigley Field.

Now I know all about being in Rome, and since I'm in enemy territory I'll suppress the urge to get revenge for the years of anguish I suffered under his reign. I promise not to bring up how the Bulls traded away three all stars in Brand, Miller, and Artest, if you promise not to mention the forbidden one. Deal?

Now that's all squared away, let's get down to business. Hmmm let me see... what would a Bulls audience want to hear about? I could do a historical look of the matchups, but we just promised not to relive those days (for my benefit, of course). So what would today's Chicagoan want to hear about with a match-up against their one-time hated rival? How about a handbook on how to beat the Knicks?

The Knicks defense is plain awful, ranked 27th and are second worst in opponent shooting percentage (49.5% eFG). That means they're easier to score on than Hilton and Richie. The Knicks just don't have the personnel nor the scheme to contain any team. 99% of the time you're going to see a plain vanilla man-to-man defense. New York does not rotate well, so don't take the first shot you see (unless of course you're wide open). The Knicks have fooled around with a zone in recent games, but it's been just ineffective. You won't see any traps or presses, so feel free to bring the ball up the court at any speed you're comfortable with.

The Bulls' guards will be able to penetrate since Houston's bum knee will keep him from playing passable defense, and Starbury's mind will be busy pondering how he's going to score on the next possession. If you get past those guys (and believe me you will), don't worry. There's no Patrick Ewing waiting in the lane, salivating at the thought of another blocked shot. Nor will Charles Oakley be looking for a new way to knock down the encroaching player. Instead you might be met by offensive minded Nazr Mohammed, or Kurt Thomas, who's well past his good defensive days.

There is one familiar face that Bulls fans will have to worry about. Due to injury, Jerome Williams the self styled "Junk Yard Dog" will be starting at SF. He's playing shut down defense at SF (7.4 oPER), but is more vulnerable when moving to PF (21.9 oPER). His replacement, Trevor Ariza is also someone to keep an eye out for. The teenage rookie doesn't have the experience to be a shut down defender yet (and you've probably seen Trevor throw his hands up in exasperation after King James ran right past him for a poster-worthy dunk). However "Air Riza" has a good nose for the ball, and is likely to strip an unaware player, blaze into the passing lane on a lazy pass, or come out of nowhere to steal a rebound. Make sure you keep an eye on this guy for the 15 minutes that Lenny allows him to be on the court.

When you allow your opponents to score half the time, you have to have a good offense to just stay near .500. The Knicks offense is ranked 14th, which isn't fantastic, but is formidable. It all starts with Marbury, who's having a great offensive season (21.9 PER). He's relentless when going to the hoop, and can burn you with the three from the top. His ability to break down the defense, and dish it has turned Nazr Mohammed into a near All Star (20.0 PER). Marbury has turned Kurt Thomas into a jump shooting PF, by keeping him out on the perimeter for pick & rolls. Thomas will knock down that shot, but the positive aspect for Bulls fans is that he'll be too far away to make any difference on the offensive glass.

Allan Houston is still working himself into shape. He's hitting the open shot, but like Daniel Bayly, he just can't get around like he used to. The best way to stop the Knicks' offense is wait for the reserves. Moochie Norris (35.1% eFG), Trevor Ariza (41.8%), and Vin Baker (31.8%) just can't shoot. Mike Sweetney (53.6% 18.2PER) is day-to-day, but even when he is suited up to play Wilkens keeps him on a ridiculously short leash (16MIN, 4.6FGA).

If you're intent on stopping the Knicks' offense, one easy way is throw the zone at them. One theory is the zone makes Marbury have Olympic flashbacks, but against it the Knicks' offense just comes to a grinding halt. The Magic went to it successfully

This is the second time in a row the Knicks have lost despite leading at the half. Against the Magic they were stymied by a second half zone defense. New York's offense just ground to a halt, as they lacked good ball movement and confidence in hitting an open jumper.

and so did the Wizards:
 

I should mention that once again Marbury had what appeared to be a poor floor game. The two turnovers he is charged with mask how poorly he ran the team down the stretch. He simply does not operate well against zone defenses.

So there you have it. Wait for the open shot. Beat the guards on the perimeter. Look out for JYD & Ariza. Hope to contain Marbury. Laugh when Moochie Norris and Vin Baker are on the court. How to beat the Knicks in a nutshell.

Eddy starts it, Ben blows it open.

The first half was basically Allen Iverson vs. Eddy Curry and the Bulls big men.  Hinrich also had a great half, and he hooked up with Curry at the halftime buzzer for Eddy's 15th and 16th points and then jumped into eachothers arms. I mean, its great that they were excited, but save that stuff for the big moments, not halftime of a game in mid-January. Iverson had his way for the most part, but the Bulls controlled the paint to help absorb that blow. The interior dominance was undoubtedly aided by Samuel Dalembert's absence, coupled with the early injury to reserve Brian Skinner. After that the Sixers had no answer for the Bulls size (Curry finished with a season-high 24) as they built a modest lead. That lead went from modest to gigantic thanks to Ben Gordon, who put the Bulls WAY ahead with his career-high 31 points, over 20 of those coming in the 4th quarter.  The game ended as a 30+ point laugher, 110-78. Biggest win margin since '98.

This game was intended to be an important measurement against the middle-of-the-pack Eastern conference teams the Bulls need to leapfrog to make the playoffs. Well after tonight's win coupled with a Boston loss, they're currently in that 8th slot. 

Easy work, this cutting and pasting.

Want to know what this Philly game tonight could potentially mean? No reason for me to go into it, since Unknown Column does a very nice job.

Tonight you can wake the echoes. Tonight the UC will be rocking. Tonight is worthy of a trip to the favorite watering hole with the boys to watch the game in true drunken, celebratory style.

The Bulls are back, baby!

(OK, even the lowest points of the crashed Bulls express era haven't prevented trips to the favorite watering hole to watch games, but still.)

The 76ers are in town and playoff implications are abound. Playoff implications? That's right. Crazy. It's approaching mid-January and the games actually matter. They matter a lot. What in the name of Ed Nealy?

On the one hand, the quickly growing excitement surrounding the Bulls - not to mention this whole playoff thing - feels new. It's like knowing Deng isn't from around here, but not knowing what country he's from. (Sudan.) It's like suddenly realizing that Eddy Curry is getting the same basketball education he would have received at Duke or Kansas or UConn. By osmosis. These are his teammates. And this playoff talk especially feels a little like this...

- The Bulls lead the league in opponents' field-goal percentage
- The Bulls have held 19 straight opponents to fewer than 100 points, the longest streak in the NBA.

When did the Bulls become so good right before our eyes? (Hint: Probably right around the time they started playing defense.)

On the other hand, it's just like riding a bike, this winning. The Bulls are supposed to win. They've done it in the past.

Dominated.

So what've they been waiting for?

As the blogfather would say: read the whole thing. I'll be back tonight for a recap.